Think-tank scholar Evan Braden Montgomery at the Center on Strategic and Budgetary Assessments has authored an unpleasant prediction of a Chinese military blockade of Taiwan by the year 2019. Montgomery’s unhappy peek ahead is written as a future news report rather than in the customary dry-as-dust terminology frequently found in think-tank publications.
Montgomery’s disturbing assessment for Taiwan is easy enough to imagine as he lays out the damaging effects of the “status quo” that keeps the island at risk of invasion.
“August 2019. For the first time in more than two decades the United States faces the prospect of a conflict with China in the Taiwan Strait. Less than twenty-four hours ago the Chinese state-run news agencies carried a televised message by the country’s president announcing a blockade of its “wayward province” demanding that Taiwan accept reincorporation with mainland China as a “special administrative region,” and declaring than any effort to intervene in this “purely internal matter” would constitute a violation of Chinese sovereignty.”
Montgomery explains that by 2019 China will be able to hold the United States military at bay and unable to intervene on behalf of Taiwan. Based on the current Chinese military build-up Montgomery forecasts an imposing arsenal aimed at the island.
China can be expected to possess over-the-horizon radars, satellites, thousands of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, thousands of land-attack and anti-ship cruise missiles, dozens of anti-ship ballistic missiles equipped with multiple warheads, thousands of surface-to-air missiles, a large number of advanced jet fighters, several dozen attack submarines equipped with anti-ship cruise missiles and advanced wake-homing torpedoes, anti-satellite weapons, and cyber warfare capabilities.”
Montgomery speculates that a blockade of Taiwan would be preceded by military training maneuvers that would forward position the armada around Taiwan
“Intelligence reports indicate that China’s large inventory of land-based ballistic missiles and cruise missiles have targeted not only Taiwan’s ports, airfields, and military installations, but also US naval and air bases in Japan, South Korea, and on the island of Guam.”
Montgomery says by then China will also be able to destroy U.S. military and commercial satellites that would prevent the U.S. from effectively launching a counter-offensive action. Cut off from imports of food and energy, Taiwan would be in desperate trouble within weeks while the United States would be unable to militarily respond because of the Chinese superior advantage in the region.
To read the think-tank prediction see link: